Life As It Goes By

Swine flu or its subtype H1N1 is no longer a stranger to all who is close to the news media. The contradicting messages of whether the pandemic has been put under control or not have provided an uneasy feeling for everyone who are in the list of affected countries or not. The only irrational outcome is the upward trend in the stock markets. Stock market wizards have beaten the commoners again. Having the experience with SARS from 2002 to 2003, these experts felt that they shouldn’t give this deja vu amiss. The herd sensing the change of direction follow the chase.

Okay okay, enough of these “prophecies”, let’s talk more about the new “pandemic”. When first heard of this news, one of the things that came to my mind is, “could this be an evil act by those with the ability to reverse the situation, namely the pharmacy companies?” I did hold strong belief for this. For they are the ones with the power and having seen those with similar power in the financial world abusing their rights, my trust and confidence for them are low. Yes, it is a matter of trust. We have all been through a lot these days. My personal fear is that some of these companies realized they have to repay huge debts to bond holders and currently the best way for quick cash is from such situations. It’s a logical deduction, I must say. However, such arguments won’t stand the tests of further questioning.

For example, what about the terrorists? How about the food companies which are busy with mixing all kinds of genes to mass-produce profitable livestock such as chickens, cows and pigs, at a lower cost? All are possible suspects. The explanation of natural occurrence could easily be another candidate. It had happened more than twice (1918 and 1976), for the record.

So, it’s hard to say. Insiders are hard to come by and authorities who want to keep the truth to themselves only want to focus on containing the situation. This is definitely the right thing to do now. Reducing the possibility of spreading the virus by quarantine is perhaps only sound way out. Though this kills business and hence the economy, one has simply no other choices. Take Mexico for example, its close ties with US would mean its economy is as badly affected as that of the US. Putting all her people back to their homes is perhaps the last resort for the reviving its economy. However, with over 1,600 confirmed cases and 45 deaths (see “WHO’s Situation Updates”), Mexico is simply left with no choice. One can’t blame them for being too optimistic of the situation and “laxing” recently. One either dies of virus or hunger. People need to get into the street. And WHO is not like IMF who can provide such financial aid.

I remembered my classmates and I did a scenario analysis for a company running theme park in Hong Kong as an assignment work. We sort of outlined pandemic as one of the worse plausible outcome, and when this is combined with an economic crisis, any company in the service industry would face its darkest hours. This is the worst scenario for any company. It kinda surprised me when this part of the story actually came through…

I believe what the WHO and all countries around the world are doing the right thing so far. More communication is required to ensure that valuable and correct information are shared among all. Best practices should be known everywhere:any news media including web. Better diagnosis and treatment should be accessible to all (still shocked to learn that Thailand actually send samples to US for testing). Internet provides perhaps the best media for such discussion and collaboration, followed by mobile communications.

SARS took 774 lives, infected 8096, spread to 30 countries, and lasted less than a year. No definite cure has been found yet. It would be naive to think of a correlation between the 2 virus, especially on their performance. However, the figures (29 countries, 4379 affected cases, 50 deaths so far in less than 3 months) should be significant enough to have everyone’s fullest attention.

Happy New Year!

After an eventful 2008, I guess everyone would settle for a more peaceful 2009. No more surprising news please. Status quo is preferred. Good news are always welcome but I doubt it’s really as good as it’s being told. Don’t blame me, I have really lost a significant amount of confidence in news. I believe I am not the only one.

Looking back, we started off with tens of thousands Palestinians flooded to Egypt after the border wall separating Gaza and Egypt was blown off and China having its year long battle with nature: its worst snowstorm since 1954.

Then, in Febraury, one of the most influential woman on earth, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. This raised doubts on whether it’s a result of a political ploy (which was dismissed based on the outcome of the election that followed) or another act of terrorism (which may then link to recent events in the region). In the same month, Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro retired as president after holding the top post since 1976.

Next in both March and April, like working on a balance, the food (as well as some other commodities) and fuel (London Brent at $140) prices kept on rising, as opposed to the housing prices in US. In the meantime, clashes and terrorist attacks were common in regions such as Israel, Iraq, Afghanistan and India-Pakistan.

In May, 2 natural disasters had struck in the span of 10 days. Cyclone Nargis killed 133,000 in Myanmar (many due to reluctance of government to request for foreign aid) and a 8.0 Moment Magnitude Scale (a successor to the Richter Magnitude Scale for measuring the size of earthquake) in Chengdu, Sichuan province took away 69,000 lives. Prior to this, China also received much press on its suppression of riots in Tibet as well as trouble makers continued to disrupt the Olympic torch relay. On the contrary, these events seemed to help unite China as a nation.

At the midpoint, 2 changes in top position. President Mugabe was re-elected after voiding the first round of the Zimbawe presidential election. Software giant Microsoft founder, Bill Gates, stepped down from his daily duties. Somalian pirates had also started their campaign.

Bombings continued in Iraq, Afghanistan and India in July.

Then, in August, China showcased the “New China” with its first ever hosting of the Olympic games, shedding some of the problems it faced earlier in the year. The South Ossetia War began with Georgia and Russia taking their own interests.

The end of Olympic games spelt the end of Japan prime minister Yasuo Fukuda’s term in September. Also, the fall of the 159 year-old investment bank, Lehman Brothers was forthcoming. This marked the official opening of the financial crisis with preludes at Fannie Mae and Freddic Mac. Dow Jones Industrial Average was 10,917, 3247 points below its historical peak. As of Dec 31st, DJIA was at 8,776.39, about 5388 (or 38%) points down from the historical peak. Problems didn’t end here. Thailand entered a new stage of political stalemate when her prime minister declared a state of emergency.Perhaps the only good news was the circulation of the proton beam for the first time in the world’s largest and highest-energy particle accelerator in CERN near Geneva. On 22nd September, it was also found that many milk products from China contained melamine which can lead to kidney stones and other renal failures, especially among children. The world acted swiftly: tests on all related products were carried and bans were in effect almost immediately. One “interesting” finding is that the number of countries and companies affected was unbelievably large that it truly exhibits the influence of China on our daily lives.

October continued to see the effects of global financial crisis despite efforts by US government to provide 700 billion bailout funds. Nationalization of companies especially those in financial sector became the latest fad in government business. Even international body, IMF had to rescue countries such as Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine as lender of “last-of-the-last” resort. However, Wall street’s woes did not dampen the moods of the U.S. voters as country would elect for its 44th president.

Change was the choice made by the Americans in November as they voted Barack Obama, the first African American, as the president of United States of America. DJIA closed at 9,625 before fluctuating around the 8000 mark for the rest of the world. Not far away, in Prairie Provinces of Canada, a meteoroid was seen falling from the sky. Political instability continued in Thailand as protesters took over the airport in the capital. And in india, terrorist acts reached its pinnacle of fame when attacks in Mumbai at world renowned hotels killed 195 including 30 foreigners from 10 nations.

In December, more unrests in Canada and Greece as Canadian parliament faced a vote of no confidence by opposition coalition and death of 15 year old Greek, shot dead by Greek police, triggered a non-stop of street protests and violence to the end of the month. Thailand also found its 3rd prime minister of the year with analyst wondering his length of stay as Thai politics went round in circles. Collective action against Somalian pirated sought by UN with China, one of the first to answer the call. Israel gave the biggest post-Christmas and pre-New Year surprise by executing Operation Cast Lead and killing 375 over 2 days of airstrikes. Lifeline was thrown to the Big Three in the US auto industry when outgoing president Bush agreed to bail out the companies.

Now, I guess you would agree with me that we should perhaps really settle for a more uneventful year in ’09.