Life As It Goes By

Swine flu or its subtype H1N1 is no longer a stranger to all who is close to the news media. The contradicting messages of whether the pandemic has been put under control or not have provided an uneasy feeling for everyone who are in the list of affected countries or not. The only irrational outcome is the upward trend in the stock markets. Stock market wizards have beaten the commoners again. Having the experience with SARS from 2002 to 2003, these experts felt that they shouldn’t give this deja vu amiss. The herd sensing the change of direction follow the chase.

Okay okay, enough of these “prophecies”, let’s talk more about the new “pandemic”. When first heard of this news, one of the things that came to my mind is, “could this be an evil act by those with the ability to reverse the situation, namely the pharmacy companies?” I did hold strong belief for this. For they are the ones with the power and having seen those with similar power in the financial world abusing their rights, my trust and confidence for them are low. Yes, it is a matter of trust. We have all been through a lot these days. My personal fear is that some of these companies realized they have to repay huge debts to bond holders and currently the best way for quick cash is from such situations. It’s a logical deduction, I must say. However, such arguments won’t stand the tests of further questioning.

For example, what about the terrorists? How about the food companies which are busy with mixing all kinds of genes to mass-produce profitable livestock such as chickens, cows and pigs, at a lower cost? All are possible suspects. The explanation of natural occurrence could easily be another candidate. It had happened more than twice (1918 and 1976), for the record.

So, it’s hard to say. Insiders are hard to come by and authorities who want to keep the truth to themselves only want to focus on containing the situation. This is definitely the right thing to do now. Reducing the possibility of spreading the virus by quarantine is perhaps only sound way out. Though this kills business and hence the economy, one has simply no other choices. Take Mexico for example, its close ties with US would mean its economy is as badly affected as that of the US. Putting all her people back to their homes is perhaps the last resort for the reviving its economy. However, with over 1,600 confirmed cases and 45 deaths (see “WHO’s Situation Updates”), Mexico is simply left with no choice. One can’t blame them for being too optimistic of the situation and “laxing” recently. One either dies of virus or hunger. People need to get into the street. And WHO is not like IMF who can provide such financial aid.

I remembered my classmates and I did a scenario analysis for a company running theme park in Hong Kong as an assignment work. We sort of outlined pandemic as one of the worse plausible outcome, and when this is combined with an economic crisis, any company in the service industry would face its darkest hours. This is the worst scenario for any company. It kinda surprised me when this part of the story actually came through…

I believe what the WHO and all countries around the world are doing the right thing so far. More communication is required to ensure that valuable and correct information are shared among all. Best practices should be known everywhere:any news media including web. Better diagnosis and treatment should be accessible to all (still shocked to learn that Thailand actually send samples to US for testing). Internet provides perhaps the best media for such discussion and collaboration, followed by mobile communications.

SARS took 774 lives, infected 8096, spread to 30 countries, and lasted less than a year. No definite cure has been found yet. It would be naive to think of a correlation between the 2 virus, especially on their performance. However, the figures (29 countries, 4379 affected cases, 50 deaths so far in less than 3 months) should be significant enough to have everyone’s fullest attention.