This article is definitely overdue and my apologies for this.
It has been a hectic start of the year for me. It’s not about work though. I just had a good break, much needed after such an eventful year. X’mas spending has been normal, like everyone here. Thanks to the great works done by governments around. The measures taken to save the financial sector have proven to be effective. Fewer people than it supposed to be, were out of the job. Business lending has not been less active and property prices have more or less recovered to levels before crisis (applies to some regions though).
There remain questions, or uncertainties to be exact, to be answered. Rising public debts and high unemployment rates keep the minds of many top policy maker spinning. According to Keynesian economics, jobs could be created in the public sector and hence, aggregate demand would be raised. However, when you have state government such as that in California, at the brink of bankruptcy, you will find it hard to get funds to pay for these much needed extra hands. Some time in 2009, there was a bill for energy passed and yet there was little impact on the job market from the so-called stimulus package. One would wonder now whether the same will happen to the healthcare bill.
Other governments have some other worries on hand: double-dip recession, default risk and weather change. Those with deep pockets can afford to provide a second round of stimulus to hold the economy, at least in current state. As for those ailing states, the future remains bleak.
UK and their European counterparts suffer another wave of attacks (from the nature this time) when sudden change in weather take the cities by storm. China is another victim of this change but perhaps in a better position and mood for the new year, having known that its GDP for 2009 registered growth of close to 10%.
United States of America almost encountered another attack from terrorist. Perhaps it is a sign of lady luck coming back home. The terrorist had outsmarted the system and must have gotten himself a shock, knowing that. Obviously, the shock did him no good as explosives fail to work (probably more thorough testing is still required to ensure there is no further reaction between the private parts of a human body and the explosives). Regardless of the outcome, the intention might be interpreted as a revenge on the recent progress (on the capture of Mr Osama’s family members).
The road ahead is still unclear. Which direction will the world economy head remains a mystery. Signs of strong growth particularly in China are welcome. There could be the before or after effects of the collective actions by the governments around the world. There were many economic growths around the globe in 2009. But this one looks authentic enough. Having said so, it is insufficient for just one such growth around the world. To swing the whole world back to the growth side, it seems, much more is needed. To be fair, an imbalance is preferred. If every country is going to the double dip recession, then the whole world may enter depression again. This somehow reflect the importance of a growing China.
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