Life As It Goes By

IT or Information Technology is something we are no longer unfamiliar with nowadays. There might be minority of people who pride themselves on not being caught in some crazy trends but I believe this number is coming down. I just hook my father up to the Internet more than half a year as his faithful service (Teletext giving “real time” stock prices) from the local broadcaster suddenly stopped. Instead, calling busy brokers to ask for price information, he approached me for help. So, I threw together a decent laptop loaded with SUSE Linux and then, it began… Amazingly, my dad survives till today, making only complaints about the inability to install some Window applications recommended by my sister.

Even though things seem still to be growing, the industry is shrinking as the IT giants began to cross one another’s path. Take the G-M-Y, M-G-Y or Y-M-G for example, Microsoft (M) has been aggressively pushing for market share in the search engine business. Partnering with Yahoo (Y) and Wolfram Alpha (if you don’t know what it is, see this),and at the same time, (close to) bribing News Corporation, Microsoft is really putting up a good fight for something they have missed out in the beginning despite being ahead with the Internet technologies. They focused too much on the web browser technology and neglected the true potential of web services or portal. They followed up with the purchase of Hotmail and tried to build a community around the MSN portal but they are still way behind Yahoo and Google (G). Just imagine how fast Google builds up its email service, brushing Hotmail and Yahoo! Mail aside. As for the portal, Google tries to do it in a different way (typical of Google) while they take cautious measures to protect their most valuable assets: search engine.  Though they also try to imitate services such as Yahoo! Finance and Yahoo! News, they should receive credit in exploring in other areas such as Google Maps, Google book and Google Docs.

Google Docs could be the trigger point for the war between Microsoft and Google. Challenging Microsoft’s 2nd prized product with features (free and collaborative) it lacks of, Google presents itself as quite a competitor in this arena. Thanks to the many acquisitions before and the maturity of the Office technologies, Microsoft is able to stand off such challenges (not the first time since Sun Microsystems and IBM have been in the competition for quite some time. Not to forget other Office products built for Linux and Mac OS). But things might change in the future as Google seems to have taken the right step. Microsoft should learn from the lessons it had with GNU tools (free software tools). While Linux did make a big impact on the server software business, its success with consumer is not as measurable. But GNU tools and free tools such as Eclipse have seriously challenged Microsoft’s compiler tools’ business. When it tries to release the product for free a few years ago, it is a sign of things changing. Seriously, collaborative software for unlimited users (and of course, for zero license fee) is very attractive for multinational companies and international community. If the Google Doc is able to match up with Microsoft Office or somewhere close to OpenOffice or IBM Lotus Symphony, it would be my default choice (rather than preferred one).

This probably explains why Microsoft is fighting so hard in this business of searching. So far, these wonderful services from Google have a common issue. They may not be as outstanding as its search engine service, particularly in terms of popularity and technological edge. We have used Google search engine for more than 10 years now and will continue to do so, just as we will use Microsoft Windows. Google Maps looks promising until Bing Maps and Yahoo! Maps can be seen on some websites. Google books remain a black horse. Having cleared recently a barrier with publishers, it still faces an uphill task especially in the face of Amazon.com. This is always the case when you are changing the landscape of the industry. See what MP3 or digital audio has done to the music industry. Anyway, the great benefits of the technology are becoming visible in national libraries. Another reason why Microsoft is in this battle could be the attacks incoming (Google Chrome in both web browser and Operating System). It just can’t sit there and take the hits.

With the Google Chrome OS, Google prepares to make a paradigm shift in the industry landscape again. Already running in mobile phones in the Android version, the OS is tagged with what Google is famous for: search, and its other services. In this move, Google tries to spread over a wide range of platform, building on its currently available services or technologies. They might be over stretched but it definitely worth a try. But by completing this step, Google has set stage for direct confrontation with Microsoft across the horizon. Next, it would just need to push forward (vertically) for all technologies and head for a showdown.

Let’s not leave Yahoo! out of the picture. Its portal services or business is still amazingly strong, thanks to the first-mover advantage. It just needs to re-discover the magic that brings them to where they are today. Amidst the commotion of selling the company, Yahoo! shows signs of seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Abandoning the search engine business (which might already have been a lost cause), partnering with cash rich Microsoft and extending on the email service (to include facilities to social networking and so on), Yahoo! is making the right moves. It is also a key player in online advertising but this is also the most intense competition would be. Being more focused now, Yahoo! can be a force and relive its past glorious moments. Strategy should be simple: kept out from the battle between the 2 Goliaths and stay afloat as there will be tremors created by the two from time to time for sure.

I remembered that I have been asked more than once, after stating proudly the football club  that I support, the reason why I supported the club. Is it purely the passion or because this is the team that brings me the most wins from all my bets. What’s the connection? I didn’t really get the first few times. I simply gave my answer though I still give my answer (which is passion, of course) now. But I began to understand, from the other thread of thought.

If I were a gambler, came across soccer bets as one of available options in the betting shop and won a few rounds, then I would naturally grow to like a particular team: my lucky team, which may become my favourite team. To do some homework, I would want to watch them play. And that’s maybe how I learn the rules of the game. This is also how I would get more confident of my choice. It will be okay for the team to lose once in a while because I know them well that they be back on winning the next time.

I have friends who were genuine fans of football clubs of great history. They have now turned to gambling as they join the fight with their clubs to gain glory. The passion for the game has remained but the approach might have shifted.

It’s a sad story I am painting here. Of course, there are still a number of die-hard fans who would not trade their faith with luck. I can’t help wondering whether should I honour them or laugh at their (or our) stupidity. We watch the same game, cheer for the same players and gets moody over the same results but those who place bets will win more than us (though the same applies to the opposite). There’s the difference.

Is there really no way to split the two apart? Betting has gotten so bad that match rigging is becoming a norm today, particularly in Europe. Popularity must have a hand in this. The world follows closely the soccer games in Europe (except for South America maybe), just like they did for basketball in US. In some countries, companies (media or telcos) fight fiercely over the exclusive rights over such contents.

However, the main factor is still gambling. It might be the least harmful of vices such as smoking, drinking and womanizing, considering the health costs over the long run. It’s a habit as hard to kick as drugs-taking. It plays down on 1 major element: hope. In a game of almost equal stakes, there is always a chance of you winning.

With legal betting stations and more casinos opening up worldwide, the choices for those who wish to try their luck shall be more and varied. It doesn’t really matter how much you place on each bet. Your share will be easily totaled up to an enormous amount with many more smaller shares like yours. Just think about it. For $2, you might stand the chance to get $200 in return. Where in the world can you find such a deal? Stock market? Okay, maybe… What about a $2 lottery for $1 million prize? Beat this!

A few days ago, Japan Finance minister reassured the position of the US dollar in the world by giving it Japan’s endorsement. It openly states that Japanese yen is not a candidate for the USD replacement. Remaining contenders are Euros, Yuan (unlikely too, as the Chinese has proposed a “basket” approach, rather than a single currency approach) and Special Drawing Rights, SDR from the IMF.

Question is  which one of the above carries the weight that the US dollar holds. It is true that the US currency has devalued though current trading value doesn’t truly represent that (those betting against or for dollar must be having lots of fun now). Having defeated the gold and slowly changing from paper to plastics or electrons, the US dollar has a presence which no other contender do have. As I learn from my ex-boss, history always play a part on the current development. All the constraints we see now could be the effects of the past. The US currency has deep roots.

To replace it, its rivals shall have to begin from the roots. The reason why you can use US dollar in  places where there is no access to the local currency, is because the huge foreign reserves of the US currency worldwide. The person who takes the USD from you can easily find someone else to exchange something for him. In a sense, it’s like gold.

Not only that, many things are priced in USD. One notable example is oil. It is almost impossible to value the current price of oil. If it is to correctly represent its worth, the price of oil will be too expensive for everyone and immediately, another round of world inflation will occur.

It is not possible to replace US dollars in one day. One has to prepare enough pulp or bakelite for the world consumption. Maybe the EU has such capabilities. However, they are not really united on this front. Till today, it still amazes me to see the existence of European Union. Who would have imagined that the colonial powers have gathered and cooperated, after seeing the centuries of wars among them. Have they lost their desire to dominate the world? It’s really hard to say. One thing is for sure though. Too many minds together can be as constructive, and as destructive as they can be.  Adding to that, are the diverse cultural background and historical contraints.

What about Yuan? China has been the topic of the new millennium. It is like it has been away for the past millennium. Its growth is envied by all though typical for all developing countries. The uniqueness about China is its ability to produce, not just for its own billion of consumers but also for the other billions in the rest of the world. Its value proposition is undeniably the best around the world at the moment. However, despite its actual age, China is still relatively young as an economical power. There are still many stages for it to reach before it fulfills its potential and matures. By this, I mean, when the China economy sneezes a bit and the whole world’s economy shakes. Then, the yuan and China are ready.

Having set such a difficult condition, it appears that there is no contenders that can really qualify and we are back to the same spot. We may need more than just a major change. A change that may take decades. Is it worth it? But if we were to keep status quo, we are devaluing our own money in relation to the current world currency of US. If we set appropriate values for our monies, we will face widespread inflation. It seems out of the 2 options, the first is a safer approach. Just like the choice taken by the Japanese minister… The Americans have promised that there won’t be a repeat of the financial system failure we just witnessed. I am thinking how long will this be? End of President Obama’s term? A decade? 2 or 3? The next generation will forget about this naturally and the effects for this time around is not as catastrophic (so who will remember this hard).